Nearly 33 million voters cast early ballots in the US — TIME

Nearly 33 million people in the United States had voted early a week before the November 3 midterm elections. About half of them cast their ballots in person, while the other half voted by mail, TIME reports, citing the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

This already represents more than a quarter of the approximately 122 million Americans who voted in the 2022 midterm elections. Election Lab director and political science professor Michael McDonald stressed that early voting data alone cannot predict the election outcome, but it makes it possible to assess the relative turnout of different voter groups.

Democrats’ advantage in early voting

In 27 states with formal voter registration by party affiliation, registered Democrats cast about 45% of early ballots, while Republicans cast 31%. Another 24% of those who have already voted are not registered with either of the two parties. These figures reflect voters’ party registration rather than the candidates for whom they voted.

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McDonald noted that Republicans can traditionally narrow the gap on Election Day itself. According to Pew Research polling after the 2024 election, nearly 40% of registered Republican voters cast ballots in person on Election Day, compared with 28% among Democrats.

Higher turnout among Hispanic voters

Political strategist Simon Rosenberg called the growing early participation of voters of Hispanic origin a notable trend compared with corresponding stages of the 2022 and 2024 campaigns. This is most evident in Texas, where, according to VoteHub, more than 4 million early votes were cast — approximately 41% of the expected total in the Senate race.

As of Monday, voters of Hispanic origin accounted for 24% of those who had voted early in Texas, one percentage point higher than their share in the final vote count in the 2024 election. McDonald believes that high participation by this group could change the overall demographic makeup of the electorate.