UNEP forecasts warming of up to 2.8°C by 2100 — OilPrice

Under current climate policies, the world is heading for warming of around 2.8°C by the end of the century, while full implementation of national commitments could limit this figure to 2.6°C. This is stated in a new report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), OilPrice reports.

The article notes that the Paris climate agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is already out of reach. At the same time, UNEP believes that countries can still accelerate action, reduce peak warming and shorten the duration of exceeding target levels.

Clean energy is not enough

The report was released amid the rapid deployment of renewable energy worldwide. According to data cited in the article, renewable energy sources already have a larger share in the global energy mix than coal. Last year, electric vehicles accounted for one in every four new cars sold, making it possible to avoid consumption of 1.2 million barrels of oil per day.

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Despite this, emissions from fossil fuel use increased last year, while methane emissions remained largely unchanged. The author also notes that the growth of clean energy production is accompanied by rising global energy demand. Factors cited include the development of artificial intelligence in Global North countries and the economic and demographic development of Global South countries.

Energy security as an incentive

Energy security has become an additional incentive for the development of solar and wind generation, OilPrice writes. Countries view renewable sources as an affordable way to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels amid geopolitical instability and high energy prices.

David Frickman, general partner at Stockholm venture group Norrsken, said that wind and sun cannot be subjected to an embargo, blockade or switched off by a decision of a foreign state. At the same time, the article emphasizes that expanding renewable energy capacity alone is not enough to achieve climate goals; energy efficiency and stricter consumption rules are also needed.