Government allies enter Mekele after TPLF retreat — Fortune
In Ethiopia, government allies entered Mekele — the capital of the northern Tigray region — on October 4 after the retreat of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The renewed fighting has effectively destroyed the 2022 peace agreement concluded in Pretoria between the federal authorities and the TPLF, Fortune reports.
The government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the establishment of a transitional administration for six months. It is intended to restore services, facilitate the return of displaced people and prepare elections. At the same time, International Crisis Group analyst Magnus Taylor noted that the loss of cities would not prevent the rebels from regrouping in rural areas.
Alliance of opposition forces
In September, the TPLF and six other opposition groups formed the Ethiopian People's Alliance for Survival in an attempt to remove the ruling Prosperity Party from power. It includes, among others, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army.
According to Taylor, the alliance combines political opposition to Abiy Ahmed with military capabilities. Simultaneous campaigns on several fronts could stretch federal government forces, but the groups' ability to coordinate such actions remains unclear. There is also a split within Tigrayan forces: the government-loyal Tigray Peacekeeping Forces, which include former members of the TPLF's armed wing, are fighting alongside federal troops against the rebels.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
Tensions with Eritrea
The escalation in Tigray is taking place amid rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopian authorities accuse the TPLF of seeking an alliance with Eritrea to destabilize the country, while Eritrea denies supporting the TPLF. Addis Ababa also says Eritrea supports the rebels and occupies Ethiopian territory; Fortune notes that The Associated Press was unable to independently verify these accusations.
Eritrea, for its part, claims that Ethiopia seeks to gain access to the sea by force. Diplomatic relations between the states have been severed: Ethiopia calls its actions self-defense, while Eritrea regarded the statement as a declaration of war. Additional tensions have been caused by Abiy Ahmed's calls to secure sovereign access for Ethiopia to Eritrea's Assab port on the Red Sea.
Ports and Nile water
The regional situation is complicated by disputes over access to ports and Nile waters. Ethiopia depends on Djibouti's ports, and its 2024 agreement with Somaliland on a coastal lease for a naval base heightened tensions with Somalia. Later, through Turkish mediation, Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to seek opportunities for commercial maritime access while preserving Somalia's sovereignty.
Egypt and Sudan continue to demand binding rules from Ethiopia for filling and operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. The positioning of Ethiopian and Eritrean forces close to one another increases the risk of a broader conflict, Taylor warned.
