Baghdad fears groups could be drawn into US-Iran war — Asharq Al-Awsat
Iraqi authorities fear that the country’s armed groups may join a possible new war between the United States and Iran and draw Baghdad into a regional conflict. Asharq Al-Awsat reported this, citing Iraqi researchers and experts.
Concerns have intensified amid reports in the United States and Israel about plans to resume strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections on November 3. The government of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, according to the publication’s sources, is trying both to prevent the country from being drawn into war and to preserve relations with Washington.
Plan to transfer weapons to the state
In September, al-Zaidi said in an interview with The New York Times that there was a phased plan to bring all weapons under state control. He named June 30, 2027, as the new deadline, while the previous deadline expired on September 30, 2026.
The first stage of the plan provides for a 90-day pause in attacks by groups on American interests and neighboring countries. In return, US forces are to refrain from strikes on these groups. Then, a gradual transfer of weapons is to take place over six months. At the same time, some influential groups do not agree to disarmament and insist that foreign troops must first leave the country.
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Risk of escalation
Talib Mohammed Karim, a professor at Mustansiriyah University, believes that the scale of possible participation by Iraqi groups will depend on the scale of the US operation and Israel’s role. In his view, direct Israeli strikes on Iran could prompt some groups to shift from attacks on US facilities in the region to strikes deep inside Israel, increasing the risk of reciprocal attacks and an expansion of the conflict.
Abdulrahman al-Juburi, an expert on US affairs, noted that the government’s position is not binding on all groups. He specifically mentioned Kataib Hezbollah, whose ideology, he said, is directly linked to Iran’s supreme leader. Basil Hussein, head of the Kluadha Center for Political Studies, suggested that the groups closest to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Kataib Hezbollah and the Nujaba movement, may intensify attacks on US interests and energy facilities in the region.
According to Hussein’s assessment, other groups, including Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib al-Imam Ali, may not join the hostilities, although their statements supporting state control over weapons do not guarantee such a position if the war spreads. A resumption of hostilities, in the view of the publication’s sources, could give opponents of disarmament new arguments for retaining weapons and expose Iraq to a response from the United States and other countries in the region.
