Four polls record decline in ANC support in South Africa — Daily Maverick

Four nationwide polls in South Africa showed a decline in support for the ANC and growth in the DA’s ratings. As Daily Maverick reports, compared with the 2024 national election result, support for the ANC in each study is lower by at least six percentage points, while support for the DA has increased by at least three points.

Poll results

In the 2024 national elections, the ANC won 40.2% of the vote. The conclusions about changes in party support are based on studies by The Common Sense/Social Research Foundation, Ipsos, News24/Sabi, and a repeat poll by The Common Sense/Social Research Foundation.

The first TCS/SRF poll was released in August, Ipsos released its poll in early September, although Ipsos’s fieldwork took place earlier. News24/Sabi data were published in early October, while the results of the second TCS/SRF poll came out in mid-October. The MK Party, according to these studies, maintains approximately the same level of support. EFF figures vary: depending on the poll, they either rise slightly or decline by several points.

More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.

Local dimension

The publication notes that national polls do not reproduce the full picture of local elections, particularly in large cities. Aggregate data may smooth out the decline in ANC support in South Africa’s urban areas, especially in Gauteng province.

Such polls also do not fully reflect the influence of smaller parties on coalitions in cities. National support for the IFP at 3–5% does not show its role as a potential “kingmaker” in eThekwini, while the FF+ has notable positions in Tshwane. ActionSA is represented in all three Gauteng metros, while the PA, which has less than 2.5% support nationally, may, according to the publication’s assessment, influence coalitions in metros and rural areas of the Western Cape province.