Copernicus forecasts second-hottest year on record — Dawn

The Copernicus Climate Change Service forecasts that 2026 will most likely become the second-hottest year on record. At the same time, according to the EU monitoring service, there is a 20% chance that this year will match or surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever measured, Dawn reports.

Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold

Copernicus said that the global average temperature in 2026 will almost certainly exceed the pre-industrial level by 1.5°C. The four-year average, from 2023 to 2026, is also expected to be above 1.5°C. This was the warming limit countries sought to achieve under the 2015 Paris climate agreement in order to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.

October was the warmest on record: the average global surface air temperature was 1.75°C above the pre-industrial level of 1850–1900. It was the third consecutive month in which the figure exceeded 1.5°C.

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The impact of El Niño

Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said that October continued a period of exceptional global warmth, including record ocean surface temperatures. According to her, an exceptionally strong El Niño is adding heat to a climate already warmed by human activity.

El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle that temporarily raises seawater temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon can alter weather patterns, increase the risks of droughts and floods, and intensify human-caused global warming. Forecasters expect the current El Niño to peak later this year and potentially contribute to 2027 becoming the warmest year on record.

The new bulletin was released ahead of the two-week UN COP31 climate summit in Turkey. It will take place after a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, severe heat in Europe, and large-scale wildfires in Indonesia.