In Poland, PiS and Confederation nearly tied in CBOS poll — RMF24

In Poland, the Civic Coalition could win 28.1% of the vote in parliamentary elections if they were held in early November. It would be followed by the Law and Justice party (PiS) with 15.8% support and Confederation with 15.4%, RMF24 reports, citing a survey by the CBOS Public Opinion Research Center.

Five parties could enter the Sejm

According to the poll, the 5% electoral threshold would also be surpassed by Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown, with 7.8% support, and the New Left, with 5.9%. Other political forces would not receive the 5% of votes required to enter the Sejm.

The Razem party would receive 3.4%, Rozwój Plus 2.8%, the Polish People's Party 1.8%, Poland 2050 1.1%, and Unia Centrum 0.2%. Another 1.7% of respondents who said they were ready to vote would choose other parties. Some 14.2% of respondents were undecided, while 1.8% declined to answer the question about their political preferences.

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Support trends and methodology

Compared with the previous month, support for the Civic Coalition fell by 0.5 percentage points, while support for PiS declined by 2.4 percentage points. At the same time, Confederation gained 2.6 percentage points. The largest increase was recorded by the New Left, up 2.9 percentage points.

Some 77.7% of respondents declared that they would take part in parliamentary elections, 3.7 percentage points more than a month earlier. CBOS linked the increased interest in the elections to recent events surrounding the Constitutional Tribunal, which, in the center's assessment, heightened political tensions. The survey was conducted on November 2–4 among 1,000 adult residents of Poland through CATI telephone interviews (80%) and CAWI online surveys (20%); the data were weighted.