New dementia cases in the US will reach 1 million a year by 2060 — The Guardian

In the United States, the number of adults diagnosed with dementia each year may rise from 514,000 in 2020 to 1 million by 2060. This forecast is cited by The Guardian, referring to a study published in the journal JAMA in 2024.

At the same time, a new study in JAMA Neurology forecasts that the annual number of new dementia cases worldwide will more than double: from 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million in 2050. Experts link the expected increase primarily to longer life expectancy and a growing number of people in age groups in which dementia occurs most often.

Shortage of specialists and caregivers

The US healthcare system is already facing a shortage of geriatricians, home care workers, and nursing home staff. According to the American Health Care Association, nearly all such facilities reported difficulties hiring workers, while approximately half limited the admission of new residents.

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The Center for American Progress forecasts that demand for nursing assistants will increase by 48% between 2020 and 2035, and demand for home health care workers by 42%. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median hourly wage for nursing assistants in residential care facilities and home health care services in May 2025 was less than $19, while that of home care workers was $17.

Long-term care costs

The number of geriatricians in the United States has also declined over recent decades, from 10,270 in 2000 to 7,413 in 2022, according to a JAMA report. A separate challenge is cited as cuts to Medicaid funding, a program that covers a significant share of long-term care costs. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in 2025, provides for nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid spending cuts over ten years.

At the same time, the FDA has in recent years approved the drugs Kisunla and Leqembi, which may moderately slow cognitive decline in some patients at an early stage of Alzheimer’s disease. The regulator has also approved blood tests that may help diagnose the disease and possibly predict the likelihood of developing it.