Standard Chartered cuts aluminum forecast and raises copper outlook — OilPrice
In London, United Kingdom, during LME Week, Standard Chartered analysts lowered their forecasts for the average aluminum price in 2026 and 2027, while raising their estimates for copper and zinc. As OilPrice reports, the base metals market will continue to depend on macroeconomic conditions, U.S. dollar dynamics, Federal Reserve policy, China's economic activity, geopolitics, tariff uncertainty in the United States, and supply disruptions.
Aluminum forecast lowered
The forecast for the average aluminum price in 2026 was cut from $3,318 to $3,249 per tonne, and for 2027 from $3,199 to $3,001 per tonne. Analysts attribute the revision to better supply prospects: a faster-than-expected recovery in supplies from the Middle East, production increases in Indonesia, high output in China, and the resumption of operations at European smelters.
Aluminum prices on October 14–15 closed below $3,000 per tonne for the first time in 2026, before climbing above that level again on the following trading day. According to Standard Chartered, prices have lost the entire premium for Middle Eastern supply risks. At the same time, the full recovery of supplies from the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council remains uncertain due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, higher transport costs, and logistical difficulties on alternative routes.
In August, China produced 3.98 million tonnes of aluminum, while output since the beginning of the year reached 31.1 million tonnes, 3.9% more than in the corresponding period last year. Capacity utilization at Chinese smelters stood at a record 98.5%. In September, exports of unwrought aluminum and semi-finished products from China rose by 25.9% year-on-year to 656,000 tonnes.
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Copper supported by supply problems
For copper, Standard Chartered raised its forecast for the average price in 2026 from $13,472 to $13,674 per tonne, and for 2027 from $12,875 to $13,210 per tonne. Since the start of the year, copper prices have risen by 16% and repeatedly set record highs. Analysts cited tight supply conditions and uncertainty over the possible introduction by the United States of tariffs on refined copper imports among the key factors.
Copper stocks on the U.S. Comex exchange reached a record 790,400 tonnes, while inventories on the London Metal Exchange declined in October. The premium for copper imports in China's Yangshan rose to $137 per tonne, its highest level since November 2022. Copper production in Chile fell by 12.8% year-on-year in August, to its lowest monthly level since February 2011.
The bank also raised its forecast for zinc but slightly lowered its expectations for nickel. The average zinc price in 2026 is forecast at $3,555 per tonne, while nickel is forecast at $17,055 per tonne. According to analysts, the nickel market is under pressure from rising exchange inventories, prospects for new high-pressure acid leach projects, and weak demand from stainless steel and battery producers.
