IMF forecasts 7.9% growth for Saudi Arabia in 2027 — Asharq Al-Awsat

The International Monetary Fund forecasts Saudi Arabia's economy to grow by 7.9% in 2027. With such a figure, the kingdom could become the fastest-growing economy among G20 countries, overtaking India, which is expected to grow by 7%, Asharq Al-Awsat reports.

IMF raises forecast by 2.4 percentage points

The IMF revised its July forecast for Saudi Arabia's real GDP growth, raising it from 5.5% to 7.9%, or by 2.4 percentage points. According to the publication, the revision reflects prospects for recovery from the consequences of the war and disruptions in global trade and energy markets.

Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Investment said the forecast demonstrates the economy's resilience and opens new opportunities for investment and growth. The ministry linked the momentum to increased private-sector activity and the expansion of non-oil activities.

The forecast also points to structural changes under the Vision 2030 program, under which non-oil sectors are to play a larger role in economic growth and reduce dependence on oil revenues.

The role of the private sector

Economist and former member of Saudi Arabia's Shura Council Fahad Binjumah told Asharq Al-Awsat that the country's projected leadership among G20 economies indicates a gradual move away from the traditional dependence on oil revenues. In his view, regulatory and legislative reforms, as well as expanded investment opportunities, are strengthening the role of the private sector.

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Binjumah noted that public investment has helped improve business conditions and open new sectors to local and foreign investors. Investment in tourism, industry, logistics and technology, in his assessment, is stimulating supply chains and small and medium-sized businesses.

At the same time, the expert called transforming rapid economic expansion into long-term productivity gains the key challenge. To achieve this, he said, skills development, increased non-oil exports and private investment independent of government spending are needed.

Comparison with G20 countries

According to IMF data presented by the Ministry of Investment, after Saudi Arabia and India, the highest growth rates in 2027 are forecast for Indonesia at 5.1%, China at 4%, and Türkiye at 3.6%. Argentina is forecast to grow by 3.5%, South Korea by 2.8%, and the United States by 2.3%.

The IMF expects growth of 1.1% for Germany, 0.9% for Russia, and 0.7% each for France and Japan.