The Russians' actual gains on the front lines are 45 times smaller than Putin claims, according to the ISW

In this way, Russia is attempting to pressure Ukraine and its Western allies into agreeing to Moscow’s demands.

During a visit to the command post of the Joint Forces Group on October 16, Putin claimed that since the beginning of the year, the occupying forces had allegedly seized about 6,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, credited Russian forces with capturing more than 1,800 square kilometers and 92 settlements since September 1.

However, according to estimates by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces have captured approximately 100 square kilometers and 69 settlements since the beginning of the year. Since September 1, they have, in fact, suffered net territorial losses of 122 square kilometers. In early October, Russian forces were losing an average of seven square kilometers per day, which contradicts Putin’s claims of success on the front lines.

Gerasimov also claimed that Ukrainian forces had been surrounded in northern Kharkiv Oblast and that 461 square kilometers and 28 settlements had been captured. The ISW calls these claims of encirclement baseless and unproven.

Yevgeny Nikiforov, commander of the Russian “North” military group, claimed that the so-called “security zone” along the border stretches for more than 600 km, of which 465 km are allegedly controlled by Russia. According to ISW estimates, Russian forces control only 205.77 square kilometers of this zone—from the E101 Kyiv–Hlukhiv highway to the adjacent front line in the direction of Velykyi Burluk.

Nikiforov also claimed that 14 settlements and over 300 square kilometers of the Sumy region had been captured in the summer and fall of 2026. Meanwhile, the ISW has documented the occupation of 99.1 square kilometers of the region since the beginning of the year.

In the Donetsk region, Gerasimov credited the Russian army with capturing approximately 500 square kilometers and 23 settlements since September. Putin claimed that only 2,748 square kilometers, or about 10% of the region, remained under Ukrainian control. According to the ISW, Russian forces have lost more than 198 square kilometers there since September, while the Ukrainian Defense Forces control 5,530 square kilometers—more than 20% of the region.

In particular, Gerasimov claimed that Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka had been captured, that Russian troops had entered Druzhkivka, and that they had reached the outskirts of Kramatorsk. However, according to analysts’ estimates, the occupying forces are at least 12 km from Druzhkivka and 9 km from Kramatorsk. These distances even account for attempts by small Russian groups to infiltrate the area.

Gerasimov also claimed that Dobropillia and its outskirts had been captured. However, the ISW found no evidence of Russian troops advancing north of the city or entering it. Limited infiltration attempts do not indicate that control over the territory has been established.

In the Zaporizhzhia region, Putin claimed that Ukraine controls only 16.5% of the territory. In contrast, evidence gathered by the ISW indicates that 24.6% of the region remains under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Analysts also refuted Gerasimov’s claims that Russian troops were located 5 km from Zaporizhzhia. In reality, the occupying forces are located at least 20.95 km from the city, or 11.6 km if their infiltration attempts are taken into account.

According to the ISW, since September, Russian forces have captured 104.5 square kilometers and eight settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region. This is significantly less than the 180 square kilometers and ten villages claimed by Gerasimov.

Analysts emphasize that exaggerating Russian successes is part of a broader cognitive warfare campaign. Moscow is attempting to create a false impression of a rapid advance by its army in order to force Ukraine and its Western partners to agree to Russia’s terms for negotiations.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

As a reminder, on October 16, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin stated that Russia had launched massive strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and that such attacks would continue. 

The 
President of the Russian Federation also stated that Russia is creating a so-called “security zone” along the border in Ukraine and does not plan to discuss it during any potential peace talks with Kyiv. 

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin claims that the Russian army is allegedly five kilometers away from Zaporizhzhia.