Decision Desk HQ predicts Kaptur’s 23rd term in the House of Representatives — The Hill

According to a projection by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Democrat Marcy Kaptur is expected to defeat Republican Derek Merrin in the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District. As The Hill reports, if she wins, Kaptur will secure her 23rd two-year term in the U.S. Congress.

A new term would extend her record as the longest-serving woman in the history of the U.S. Congress.

Initial projection

As of Wednesday morning, data on 10% of the votes had been released. DDHQ projected Kaptur to receive nearly 53% of the vote. Before the election, the organization’s analysts assessed her chances of winning at approximately seven out of ten.

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The election was a rematch between Kaptur and Merrin. In 2024, the Democrat defeated Merrin by less than one percentage point — by 2,382 votes.

Redistricting

After the 2024 election, Ohio carried out redistricting that changed the boundaries of Kaptur’s northwestern district. Under the previous configuration, the district backed Donald Trump by seven points in the 2024 presidential election, while under the new map his advantage would have been 11 points.

In 2024, a Libertarian Party candidate also ran in the district, whom some observers considered a factor in the result. In 2026, the third-party candidate withdrew, leaving only Kaptur and Merrin on the ballot. Merrin, a former state legislator, was endorsed by Trump, while Kaptur significantly outpaced her opponent in the amount of campaign funds raised and spent.