Democrats have an 80% chance of winning the House of Representatives — The Hill

In the United States, one week before the 2026 midterm elections, analytics platform Decision Desk HQ estimated the Democratic Party's chances of winning control of the House of Representatives at 80% and of the Senate at 57%. Democrats need to take four seats from Republicans for a Senate majority, while they need to gain three seats to control the House of Representatives.

As The Hill reports, public opinion polls give Democrats an advantage in a sufficient number of Senate races, although margins in most states remain within the statistical margin of error. According to Decision Desk HQ, Democrats' best opportunity is North Carolina. The party also has a slight advantage in Alaska, Maine, Texas and Ohio, trails in Iowa and is tied in Kansas.

Key races

Democrats also lead in states where they are defending their Senate seats: Georgia, Michigan and Minnesota. The outlet names South Carolina, Mississippi and Nebraska among the more challenging contests for them, where an independent candidate backed by Democrats is running.

In the battle for the House of Representatives, Decision Desk HQ's average in the nationwide poll on voters' party preferences in districts gives Democrats an advantage of 8.1 percentage points. At the same time, Republicans may win several seats in districts whose boundaries were redrawn. Gubernatorial elections will be held, among other places, in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin. Democrats have a chance to win a majority of governorships for the first time since 2009.

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When polls close

The first polling stations will close at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time in parts of Kentucky and Indiana. Voting will end at 7:00 p.m. in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia, and at 7:30 p.m. in West Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina.

At 8:00 p.m., polls will close in a number of states, including Pennsylvania, Maine, Massachusetts and Tennessee. Voting will also end at 8:00 p.m. in most of Texas, Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota, and at 9:00 p.m. in the remaining parts of those states. In California and Washington state, polling stations will close at 11:00 p.m. In Hawaii and most of Alaska, they will close at midnight, and in some areas of Alaska at 1:00 a.m.

Expectations for results

Results may come more quickly from Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas, where most votes are cast early in person or on Election Day, and mail ballots have short receipt deadlines. Counting in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania may continue beyond Election Day, especially in the event of close results.

In California, where elections are largely conducted by mail, ballots are sometimes counted for weeks. Newly elected members of Congress are to be sworn in at noon on January 3, 2027. If Democrats win special Senate elections in Ohio or Florida, they may be sworn in earlier, before the end of the year.