Europe discusses response to Russia’s sabotage campaign — The Japan Times
In Germany and other European countries, officials are discussing how to respond to the intensification of sabotage and other hybrid actions in NATO states that they link to Moscow. According to sources of The Japan Times, Russia, an aggressor state, is seeking to weaken European support for Ukraine and reshape Europe’s security architecture.
European officials assess that they do not expect a large-scale Russian invasion of a NATO member state. At the same time, they consider the greatest risk to be the possibility that one of the sabotage operations — accidentally or deliberately — could result in significant loss of life.
Incidents and accusations
Among the latest episodes directly attributed to Russia or regarded as organized by Moscow are attacks on Poland’s railway infrastructure, sabotage at factories, incursions by Russian reconnaissance drones, and plots to assassinate executives of European defense companies. An incident in which a Russian frigate fired signal flares toward a Danish helicopter is also mentioned.
Berlin directly linked to Moscow a malfunctioning drone carrying explosives that was found near Ukrainian transport aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport in eastern Germany. The drone was discovered by an airport employee. According to the publication, the case was one of the incidents after which new warnings about Russian operations were voiced in Europe.
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Three levels of deterrence
European countries seek to strengthen deterrence at three levels: publicly point to the Kremlin’s responsibility, reinforce the protection of critical infrastructure, and impose consequences on Moscow — openly or covertly. This includes protecting airports, railway hubs, important factories, and other potential targets.
Denmark, Finland, and Poland are also preparing their populations for possible military threats through warnings and information messages. Analysts note that defensive measures are insufficient: they propose identifying networks involved in such operations, identifying and holding Russian intelligence officers accountable, as well as hindering the recruitment and financing of local operatives.
The problem of a joint response
Experts note that countries need pre-prepared legal authorities and funding to respond quickly. However, coordinating collective action is difficult, as states traditionally retain security decisions for themselves.
As possible response options, analysts cite cyber measures and strengthening forward air defense, including over Ukraine’s territory to intercept threats heading toward NATO countries. The EU is discussing a consultation protocol for hybrid attacks similar to the mechanism of NATO Article 4, while the Alliance has a command structure to implement collective decisions.
