IMF raises South Korea growth forecast to 3.3% — Korea Herald

The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for South Korea’s economic growth in 2026 to 3.3%. This is 0.7 percentage points higher than its July estimate. As Korea Herald reports, the IMF explained the forecast revision by strong semiconductor exports, which outweighed the negative impact of the war in the Middle East.

Forecast higher than global growth

The fund released the updated estimate in its World Economic Outlook report during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings being held in Bangkok. The forecast for South Korea exceeds expected global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026.

The IMF also improved its forecast for the country in 2027: growth of 2.8% is expected, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous estimate. The fund named South Korea and Taiwan key trading partners in the production of artificial intelligence equipment. Changes in these economies, the organization estimates, could affect commodity exporters and manufacturing hubs.

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Chip exports supported the economy

South Korea’s Ministry of Finance and Economy linked the revised forecast to sustained exports of artificial intelligence equipment and microchips. The ministry noted that the 0.7-percentage-point upgrade for the country exceeded the 0.4-percentage-point increase for the group of 41 advanced economies. Their combined growth forecast for 2026 is 2.1%.

In September, South Korea’s exports rose by 83.5% year-on-year to a record $120.9 billion. Semiconductor shipments exceeded $60 billion in a month for the first time. At the same time, the IMF cited commodity price fluctuations, inflationary pressures, a possible revision of expectations regarding AI-driven productivity, and a renewed escalation of trade tensions among the risks to the global economy.