Polls show a technical tie between Lula and Bolsonaro in Brazil — Anadolu Agency

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro hold statistically equal positions ahead of the second round of the presidential election scheduled for October 25. This was reported by Anadolu Agency, citing PoderData/Aya and BTG/Nexus surveys.

Poll results

According to PoderData/Aya, among valid votes, Flávio Bolsonaro has 51% support, while Lula has 49%. A BTG/Nexus poll showed 52% support for Bolsonaro and 48% for Lula. Both results are within the margins of error of the respective surveys, indicating a technical tie.

In the previous PoderData/Aya poll, published on October 8, Bolsonaro was ahead of Lula by 53% to 47%. In the new survey, Lula's rating rose by two percentage points, while Bolsonaro's result declined accordingly.

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Methodology and first round

In voting intention figures, PoderData/Aya recorded 48% for Bolsonaro and 46% for Lula, while BTG/Nexus recorded 48% and 45%, respectively. The remaining respondents were undecided, refused to answer, or said they intended to cast a blank or invalid ballot.

PoderData/Aya surveyed 3,000 voters by telephone on October 10–12, with a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points. BTG/Nexus surveyed 2,002 respondents aged 16 and over on the same dates; its margin of error was two percentage points. The BTG/Nexus survey was commissioned by the financial institution BTG Pactual. Both polls are registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court. In the first round on October 4, Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes and Lula received 45.16%.