Pakistan cuts GDP growth estimate to 3.65% in fiscal year 2026 — Dawn
The Pakistani government, during a meeting of the National Accounts Committee, revised its estimate of gross domestic product growth in fiscal year 2026 to 3.65% from the May estimate of 3.7%. The adjustment was linked to a moderate slowdown in industry and services, Dawn reports.
Previously, the government expected the economy to grow by 4%, but later lowered the estimate to 3.7%. The updated figure means that the country did not reach its GDP growth target. It is close to the forecasts of international lenders: the IMF expected growth of 3.6%, while the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank projected 3.7%.
Revised sector indicators
The estimate for agricultural growth was raised from 2.89% to 3.5%. At the same time, the estimate for industry was reduced from 3.51% to 3.34%, and for services from 4.09% to 3.81%.
In industry, the growth rate of large-scale manufacturing was revised from 6.11% to 5.01%. Meanwhile, construction grew by 6.3% due to increased government spending on construction work. Negative dynamics were recorded, in particular, in pharmaceuticals, iron and steel production, the chemical industry, leather manufacturing, and electric power.
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Economic size and income
According to the committee's calculations, the size of Pakistan's economy in fiscal year 2026 increased to $450.4 billion from $410.96 billion a year earlier. The services sector was the main driver of this growth, followed by industry and livestock.
Per capita income in dollar terms increased to $1,896 from $1,824 in fiscal year 2025. The estimate is based on data from the 2023 population census. The publication notes that this figure is the lowest in the region, while inflationary pressure limits purchasing power and people's ability to save or invest.
The committee also updated the GDP growth figure for fiscal year 2025 to 3.11%, instead of the previously estimated 3.18%. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, the economy grew by 2%.
