President Lula leads Vox Brasil poll with 51% — The Rio Times

In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives 51% of valid votes in the second round of the presidential election, while Rio de Janeiro senator Flávio Bolsonaro receives 49%. These are the results of a Vox Brasil institute poll, The Rio Times reports. Voting is scheduled for October 25, 2026.

Survey results

Among all responses, Lula has 46.4%, while Bolsonaro has 44.6%. Another 5% of respondents chose a blank or invalid ballot or did not support any candidate, while 3.9% were undecided. After excluding these responses, the distribution of valid votes stands at 51% versus 49% in favor of the incumbent president.

Vox Brasil Opinião e Pesquisas surveyed 2,100 voters aged 16 and older on October 15–17. The survey's statistical margin of error is 2.15 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The gap between the candidates among all responses is 1.8 percentage points and is within the margin of error, so the result is considered a statistical tie. The poll is registered with Brazil's electoral court under number BR-04332/2026.

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Other measurements

In the previous Vox Brasil survey, conducted on October 5–7, Lula had 44.2%, while Bolsonaro had 42.7% among all responses. At the same time, the share of undecided respondents fell from 9.7% to 3.9%, while the share of blank and invalid responses rose from 3.4% to 5%.

Other polling services show the opposite lead: Datafolha and Quaest showed 51% of valid votes for Flávio Bolsonaro and 49% for Lula. According to Vox Brasil, 45.3% of respondents said they would never support Lula, and the same share named Bolsonaro.