Trump May Pressure Ukraine to Reach a Peace Deal by December — WP

Donald Trump’s latest moves have heightened fears that the U.S. may pressure Ukraine to agree to a peace deal on terms favorable to Russia. Among the developments that have caught analysts’ attention are Trump’s criticism of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the easing of certain restrictions on Moscow, and changes in U.S. support for Ukraine.

Andrew Weiss, an expert on Russia at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that the possible deadline is linked to the December G20 summit in Miami. Trump has invited Russian leader Vladimir Putin to the meeting of world leaders. According to Weiss, the U.S. president may be seeking to reach an agreement on the war before this event. “The only explanation that comes to mind is a connection to the preparations for the December G20 summit. In my view, this has nothing to do with diesel fuel or strikes on oil refineries. The point is that Trump believes he can push the Ukrainians toward a certain political settlement,” the expert said.

At the same time, this is the analyst’s assessment, not an officially announced deadline for concluding a peace agreement. There are no publicly confirmed agreements stating that Ukraine must agree to peace by December.

Moscow Wants Concessions on Donbas

According to Weiss, Russia may use pressure from the U.S. administration to force Ukraine to relinquish control over Donbas. However, in his view, territorial demands may be only part of a broader list of conditions set by the Kremlin. “This would inevitably be followed by discussions about limiting Ukraine’s military capabilities or other hidden demands from Russia,” the expert cautioned.

This means that any potential negotiations may not be limited to territorial issues. Among the potential topics are the future capabilities of the Ukrainian army and other security conditions. At the same time, the specific details of a possible agreement and the parties’ positions on such demands are not specified in this article.

Why the Kremlin Is Talking About a Political Victory

According to The Washington Post, Russian officials view the latest changes in Washington’s policy as a sign of waning Western support for Ukraine. Moscow hopes that the disagreements between Kyiv and Washington will help Russia advance its own demands in the negotiations.

The publication notes that Vladimir Putin has many years of experience dealing with foreign leaders. According to the newspaper’s sources, this time the Russian president may have capitalized on Trump’s concerns about energy prices and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.

One Russian scholar, who is close to high-ranking diplomats, called the recent events a political victory for Moscow. “The Russian leadership has achieved a kind of political victory. All of this happened after their phone call. Putin likely managed to convince Trump,” he said in a comment to the publication.

At the same time, a former high-ranking U.S. intelligence official believes that Trump’s latest moves are consistent with his long-standing approach toward Russia and Ukraine. In his view, the U.S. president tends to believe that Russia has the upper hand in the war due to its size and military resources. This, according to the newspaper’s source, influences Trump’s attitude toward the negotiations. Such assessments reflect the views of individual experts and former officials. They do not mean that Russia has already achieved its goals or that Ukraine has agreed to the terms proposed by Moscow.

What Is Known About a Possible Meeting Between Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping

Amid tensions between Washington and Kyiv, there is discussion of a possible trilateral meeting between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. According to Reuters, Putin proposed holding it next month during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in China. Initially, the talks were to focus on nuclear weapons and nonproliferation. However, according to media reports, Putin would also like to use the meeting to discuss ending the war against Ukraine on terms favorable to Moscow.

Trump stated that he is ready for such a meeting if Xi Jinping agrees to it. At the same time, the U.S. president emphasized that the main topics should be nuclear disarmament and arms control. It is currently unknown whether the leaders will discuss specific terms for ending the war.

Ukraine opposes any agreements regarding its future that are made without its participation. Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga stated that a trilateral meeting between the leaders of Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia could help bring the war to a quicker end. In contrast, negotiations involving only the U.S., Russia, and China, in his view, could encourage Putin to continue hostilities.

Thus, speculation about a possible peace agreement by December is based on analysts’ assessments of Trump’s latest moves and planned international meetings. However, the reports cited do not mention a coordinated peace plan that would confirm such a timeline. The positions of Ukraine and Russia regarding the terms for ending the war remain significantly different, according to The Washington Post.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas stated that for the past year and a half, American negotiators have been trying to pressure Ukraine into capitulating on the terms set by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. According to her, Kyiv has refused to accept these demands thanks to the support of European countries.

The Kremlin hopes that U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the near future and brief him on his contacts with the Ukrainian and European sides. Moscow also expects the exchange of signals between Washington and the Kremlin on important issues to continue.