Centre Party overtakes Isamaa in Estonian polls — ERR News

In Estonia, the opposition Centre Party has overtaken another opposition force, Isamaa, in popularity for the first time since 2023. According to the four-week average, support for the Centre Party rose to 23.1%, while Isamaa's rating fell to 22.8%.

This was reported by ERR News, citing results from Norstat and the Institute for Social Research. Earlier this month, Emor and Turu-uuringud polls also recorded a similar change in the ratings.

Changes in party ratings

Over the week, support for the Centre Party increased by 1.4 percentage points, reaching its highest level since August 2020. At the same time, Isamaa's rating fell by 1.2 percentage points. The party last lost first place in the polls in November 2023.

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Support for the Social Democratic Party rose by 1.8 percentage points over the past four weeks, to 16.5%. This is its best result since September 2024. It is followed in the rankings by EKRE with 13.8%, the Reform Party with 12.3%, and Parempoolsed with 6.4%.

Projected seat distribution

Support for the Reform Party, which is part of the coalition, has fallen by 1.7 percentage points over the past five weeks. The junior coalition partner, Eesti 200, received 1.4%. The Greens, ERK, and Koos each received less than 1%.

In total, coalition parties were supported by 13.7% of respondents, while parliamentary opposition forces received 76.2%. According to calculations by political scientist Martin Mölder, the Centre Party could win 26 seats in the Riigikogu, Isamaa 25, the Social Democrats 18, EKRE 14, the Reform Party 12, and Parempoolsed six. The aggregated results cover the period from September 28 to October 25, during which 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were surveyed.