CBO estimates October US deficit at $409 billion — Fortune

In the United States, the federal budget deficit in October 2026, the first month of fiscal year 2027, was estimated by the CBO at $409 billion. This is $125 billion more than in October 2025, Fortune reports, citing the Congressional Budget Office.

Revenues fell, spending rose

According to the CBO's estimate, federal revenues in October were $36 billion lower than in the same month a year earlier. At the same time, spending increased by $89 billion. The office attributed the higher deficit to changes in the timing of certain federal payments that otherwise would have been made on November 1. In 2025 and 2026, that date fell on a weekend, so the payments were moved to October.

Fiscal-year deficit

For fiscal year 2026, the US deficit reached $1.9 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP, compared with 5.8% a year earlier. The figure exceeded the average of the past 50 years, which stands at 3.8% of GDP. The CBO also noted that the federal government spent $1.14 trillion on interest on the national debt.

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Government revenues for the year rose to $5.4 trillion, up $169 billion from fiscal year 2025, including due to increased receipts from individual income taxes and payroll taxes. Total spending, meanwhile, rose by $217 billion, mainly because of higher spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid programs.

Treasury Department operations

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the department's actions as a “Treasury twist” in the summer. According to Fortune, he referred to buying back more expensive long-term debt using short-term borrowing with lower yields. At the same time, the publication notes that the Treasury Department did not confirm this strategy in precisely those terms. James Sullivan, co-head of global fundamental research at JPMorgan, compared this approach to paying a mortgage with a credit card.