Copernicus predicts the 1.5°C threshold could be exceeded as early as 2029 — Ars Technica

At the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkey, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service said that the average global temperature could exceed the long-term threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels as early as 2029, Ars Technica reports.

The forecast has changed over a decade

When the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted in 2015, exceeding this threshold was projected for around 2045. Copernicus now estimates that this could happen 16 years earlier. The service's scientists noted that this shift indicates a noticeable acceleration of global warming in recent years.

Researchers stressed that although not all factors behind the recent sharp rise in global temperatures are fully understood, rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by human activity remain the main driver of the trend.

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Climate policy without progress

A separate analysis by the nonprofit group Climate Action Tracker found that, on the current trajectory, the world is still heading toward warming of nearly 5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 compared with pre-industrial levels. Under the most optimistic scenario, which assumes the full implementation of current policies and government pledges, temperatures could rise by 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century.

Climate Analytics analyst Sarah Hek said that collective government action on climate has been at a standstill for the fifth consecutive year. According to her, efforts to accelerate the phaseout of fossil fuels are being offset by new oil and gas extraction projects, while some governments are delaying, weakening, or abandoning climate measures.

New Climate Institute researcher Niklas Höhne said that the development of renewable energy has not yet made it possible to change the emissions trajectory quickly enough. He also noted that COP31 co-hosts Turkey and Australia had not presented specific plans for transitioning away from fossil fuels. Australia is one of the world's largest coal exporters, while Turkey's energy sector depends heavily on it.