In Brazil, Senator Bolsonaro has 51% against President Lula’s 49% — The Rio Times

In Brazil, Rio de Janeiro Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is receiving 51% of valid votes in the final Datafolha poll ahead of the second round of the presidential election. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 49%. According to The Rio Times, Datafolha calls this result a technical tie, as the difference is within the margin of error.

Poll data

The poll, commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo and Globo, was conducted on October 23 and 24 among 4,050 voters aged 16 and older nationwide. The margin of error is two percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under number BR-09540/2026.

When all responses are counted, rather than only valid votes, Bolsonaro was supported by 48% of respondents and Lula by 47%. Another 3% of respondents said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot, while 2% were undecided.

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Comparison with the previous survey

In the previous Datafolha poll, published on October 22, Bolsonaro had about 50.54% of valid votes, while Lula had 49.46%. The change of less than one percentage point is also within the margin of error. The October 15 poll showed the same distribution as the final one: 51% to 49%.

The second round of Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for October 25. The final result will be determined by the official count of Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court.