The Kremlin is planning provocations in Europe that it could blame on Ukraine, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate

Russia is preparing operations under a false flag to destabilize the situation in Europe, and after carrying them out, it may try to pin the blame on Ukraine. The goal of such actions is to weaken international support for Kyiv, discredit Ukraine’s security and defense forces, and intimidate European governments and societies.

“Russia is stepping up its destabilization strategy against the European Union with the aim of reducing or eliminating external support for Ukraine by discrediting our country’s security and defense forces, as well as by intimidating European governments and societies. According to assessments by Ukrainian military intelligence, this may involve the implementation of provocative sabotage operations in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in the Baltic states,” the GUR statement reads.

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russian plans may involve conducting operations under a false flag. Following such provocations, the Kremlin may use Russian propaganda channels and international platforms at its disposal to accuse Ukraine of organizing the sabotage.

Possible locations for such provocations could include:

• critical infrastructure facilities;
• territories bordering Russia;
• the Kaliningrad enclave;
• the Suwałki Corridor;
• regions of European Union countries with Russian-speaking populations;
• facilities controlled by the Kremlin, in particular the network of institutions of the Russian Orthodox Church.

The Main Intelligence Directorate emphasizes that potential provocations could affect countries in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltic states.

According to Ukrainian intelligence assessments, Russia seeks to influence European countries’ attitudes toward Ukraine and create grounds for reducing or halting military and other foreign aid to Kyiv.

To this end, the Kremlin may attempt to discredit Ukraine’s security and defense forces and shape the perception in European societies of Ukraine as a source of threats.

At the same time, these scenarios are assessments by Ukrainian military intelligence regarding Russia’s possible plans, not confirmation that all of the listed provocations have already taken place.

This was reported by the press service of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR) on Telegram.

Prior to this, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated that the Russian threat to NATO’s eastern flank is intensifying. According to him, Moscow is becoming “increasingly reckless,” and it must be stopped in Ukraine so that it does not have to be stopped elsewhere later on.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the Alliance has various options for responding to Russia’s hybrid attacks, and that the allies’ response will not necessarily be symmetrical or public.