Russia is exaggerating its successes on the front lines to influence the negotiations

Russian claims of control over Ukrainian territories could complicate negotiations to end the war and provide grounds for accusing Ukraine of violating a potential ceasefire. An analyst explained how exaggerating the advance of Russian troops could affect the negotiation process.

 

French OSINT analyst Clément Molin highlighted this risk in a post.

According to the analyst’s assessment, Russian maps depict a significantly larger area under the Russian military’s control than the one it actually holds. Molen emphasizes that discrepancies between stated and actual positions could have consequences not only for the information war but also for future agreements between Kyiv and Moscow.

Molen suggests that during negotiations, the Russian side may demand recognition of the line of control that it has marked on its own maps. If agreements are based on these claims rather than on the actual deployment of troops, this could become an obstacle to reaching a deal.

The analyst sees a particular danger in a potential ceasefire. According to his scenario, if Russian maps show the positions of the Russian Armed Forces 10–15 km ahead of the actual front line, Moscow will be able to accuse the Ukrainian military of shelling Russian units in those areas. Such claims could potentially be used to justify violations of the ceasefire.

On the map analyzed by Molen, areas claimed by Russia are marked in yellow, while zones under the de facto control of Russian troops—according to the author’s interpretation—are marked in red. Among the settlements where, according to the analyst, Moscow’s claims do not correspond to the situation on the ground, he lists:

• Kupyansk—a city marked on Russian maps as being under the control of Russian forces.
• Liman—the occupiers also count it among the territories under Russian control.
• Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia—these cities are listed among the settlements that Moscow claims as its own.
• Orihiv—part of the city is marked on the map as surrounded and controlled by Russian forces.

Claims regarding the capture of these settlements have already been refuted. In particular, the head of the Office of the President, Kirill Budanov, reported that Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast remains under Ukrainian control, despite the Russian side’s claims that the city had allegedly been captured.  

Molen links the discrepancies on the maps to a broader problem with the negotiation process. According to him, Ukraine has repeatedly declared its readiness for dialogue, proposing a ceasefire along the current front line and a halt to airstrikes. The analyst believes that Moscow, on the other hand, shows no willingness to end the war and is using the negotiations to its own advantage.

In Molen’s view, the Russian leadership may continue hostilities as long as Vladimir Putin expects to achieve a military victory. Under such a scenario, the war could drag on for years unless a decisive turning point occurs on the front lines.

The analyst also emphasizes that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Ukraine’s sovereign territory is not an acceptable way for Kyiv to end the war. Therefore, in his assessment, the question of the actual front line will be of fundamental importance for any future agreements.

Source: Clément Molen

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