Decision Desk HQ projects Crowley’s victory in Wisconsin — The Hill

Partner of The Hill, Decision Desk HQ, projects that Democrat David Crowley will defeat Republican Tom Tiffany in the election for governor of the U.S. state of Wisconsin. As of 10:20 p.m. Eastern Time on November 3, Crowley had 54% of the vote versus Tiffany’s 46%, with 63% of votes processed.

Change of state governor

Crowley, who heads Milwaukee County, is set to replace outgoing Democratic Governor Tony Evers. Evers endorsed Crowley during the state’s Democratic primary.

If the projection is confirmed, the 40-year-old Wisconsin native will become the state’s first Black governor. In May 2020, he became the youngest person to take office as head of Milwaukee County, as well as the first Black official to hold that position.

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Campaign developments

In the Democratic primary in August, Crowley defeated progressive candidate Francesca Hong, despite trailing her by double digits in polls. In early July, he withdrew from the race and endorsed Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez, but returned to the campaign after she withdrew her candidacy in mid-July.

Following Crowley’s primary victory, the analytical project Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its rating of the November election in favor of Democrats, while Decision Desk HQ classified the race as one leaning toward the Democratic Party. Crowley attended the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee but interrupted his studies because of political work and earned his degree in 2024 — 20 years after enrolling.