Researchers: Australia lost 93% of its Indigenous population in 73 years — ScienceDaily

A new study estimated Australia's Indigenous population before the arrival of the First Fleet in 1788 at 2.22 million people. According to the scientists' model, by 1861 this number had declined by approximately 93% — to 7% of its pre-colonial level, ScienceDaily reports.

A new population estimate

The authors of the study, published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour, combined genetic reconstructions, archaeological findings, ethnographic observations, historical records and computer modelling. They also analysed how many people different natural environments across the continent could support.

The median estimate is 2.22 million people, or about 0.29 people per square kilometre. This is significantly higher than previous calculations, which mostly ranged from 250,000 to 1 million. An estimate by anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown made in the 1930s suggested approximately 250,000 Indigenous inhabitants before colonisation.

The researchers believe that early estimates did not fully account for the effects of disease, violence on colonial frontiers and systemic oppression, which affected population numbers even before the first censuses were conducted.

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Losses after 1788

By comparing their model with early census data, the scientists estimated the number of excess deaths in 1788–1861 at approximately 2.06 million. This corresponds to an average of about 28,200 excess deaths per year over 73 years.

According to Australia's 2021 census, the Indigenous population was about 37% of the median estimate given by the study for 1788. The authors project that, if current growth rates persist, it could return to that level around 2047.

The scientists note that the findings are important for understanding intergenerational trauma and persistent inequality, as well as for shaping policies to support Australia's Indigenous communities.