Kalshi claims 98% accuracy in US election forecasts — The Hill

Prediction market platform Kalshi said its markets correctly predicted the outcomes of 98% of US midterm election races for which winners had already been declared at that point. This includes elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as races for governor, attorney general, lieutenant governor and secretary of state. As The Hill reports, the company compared the favorites in its markets at 5 p.m. Eastern Time, shortly before the first polling places closed in Indiana and Kentucky, with races whose results had already been announced.

Platform claims

According to Kalshi, the accuracy of its forecasts was 95% in House of Representatives races and 94% in Senate elections. The company also claimed correct forecasts in competitive Senate races in Texas, Maine and Kansas, where Democrats won.

Another platform, Polymarket, claimed 98.4% accuracy in resolved election markets, comparing the data with figures from the day before voting. By its calculations, accuracy was about 97% in Senate and gubernatorial races and 98.6% in House of Representatives elections.

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Caveats about the calculations

Ross Dalke, a professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, noted that the initial figures cover only markets with an already determined outcome, which may be easier to forecast. He also noted that many races were relatively predictable even before voting day.

Trading volume in Kalshi's election markets rose from $1.3 billion in the 2024 election cycle to $2.5 billion in the current cycle, according to the company. At the same time, prediction markets are drawing increasing attention from US lawmakers over the risks of using insider information and gambling addiction. The platforms have already been wrong in other elections, including in Brazil and in primaries in Los Angeles and Wisconsin.