More than 50,000 heat-related deaths estimated in European cities — The Independent

In the summer of 2026, more than 50,000 excess deaths related to heat may have occurred in 854 urban centres across Europe. This estimate, based on statistical modelling, was made by scientists from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, The Independent reports.

Mortality estimate

The researchers combined temperature data with historical mortality figures. The analysis covered urban centres in the EU, the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland, where approximately 40% of the population of these territories lives.

According to the authors' calculations, climate change, which intensified extreme heat, was linked to 65% of heat-related deaths during the summer — more than 32,000 cases. The researchers compared recorded temperatures with models of a world without warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. At the beginning of the century, global warming accounted for approximately 40% of heat-related deaths.

Highest figures in Italy

The largest number of deaths — more than 13,000 — was estimated for Italy. In urban areas of the United Kingdom, the study found that around 4,500 excess deaths may have occurred; the authors attributed approximately 2,500 of them to the intensification of heatwaves caused by global warming.

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The period from June 17 to July 1 was particularly severe, when temperatures on the continent exceeded average values by more than 5°C. The researchers estimated that one-third of all summer heat-related deaths occurred during this period. In Western Europe, the seasonal temperature was 2.9°C higher than the 1991–2020 average, while on some peak days the deviation reached 12°C.

Although older people are primarily affected by heat, approximately 6,000 people under the age of 65 died due to extreme temperatures in the studied urban areas, according to the authors' estimate. The scientists called on cities to adapt to heat, including by developing green spaces, reducing air pollution and strengthening medical support.

The authors stressed that the results are based on statistical modelling. At the same time, their previous estimates of mortality during heatwaves in May and June in England and Wales were close to subsequent data from the UK Health Security Agency.