A pork shortage is forecast in Ukraine due to African swine fever

The spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Ukraine is leading to a decline in the pig population and poses the risk of a pork shortage in the future. As early as next year, the industry may face a shortage of pigs and a significant rise in prices.

According to forecasts by experts from the “Meat Industry” Association, the price of live pigs could exceed 100 UAH per kilogram.

The association estimates that in regions affected by African swine fever, purchase prices are falling due to an oversupply of animals, some of which may be infected. At the same time, the loss of livestock is gradually creating the conditions for a pork shortage in the future.

“Within a year, the meat industry will inevitably face an acute shortage of live hogs and rising prices—which, according to industry estimates, will likely be significantly higher than 100 UAH per kilogram of live weight,” the association predicts.

According to the State Statistics Service, as of early September 2026, there were 4.64 million pigs in Ukraine—4% fewer than during the same period last year. The sharpest decline was seen in the number of pigs on private farms—down by a quarter, to 1.26 million head.

For the week of October 26 through November 1, 2026, the association forecasts purchase prices for live pigs at 72–73 UAH/kg. This is approximately 6% higher than the previous week. However, in regions where outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) have been reported, prices continue to fall.

Industry representatives emphasize the need to expedite the registration of a vaccine against African swine fever. According to experts, this would help protect existing pig farms and operations planning to resume production in 2027.

This is stated in the weekly forecast by the “Meat Industry” association, as cited by the “Agribusiness” website.

Global food prices may rise by the end of 2027 — Reuters.

As a reminder, berry prices are rising in Ukraine due to a European shortage.

Changes in the dollar exchange rate could affect the cost of a number of products in Ukrainian stores. Goods that Ukraine imports or produces from foreign raw materials are most at risk of becoming more expensive.

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