The Economist warns of the threat of a demographic collapse in Ukraine

In the first half of 2026, three times as many people died in Ukraine as were born. The population of the government-controlled territory is estimated to have fallen to 27–28 million, down from approximately 37 million before the full-scale war.

Another 3–5 million Ukrainians remain in the occupied territories, and more than 5 million have fled abroad.

 The situation is exacerbated by a decline in the birth rate. While in 2020 the average number of children per woman was 1.2, that figure now stands at 0.8–0.9.

The number of refugees planning to return to Ukraine is also decreasing. Currently, 43% of Ukrainians abroad express this intention, compared to 74% at the end of 2022.

Demographer Ella Libanova also warns of a new wave of male migration once martial law ends. According to her, if veterans do not have decent jobs and salaries, their families may decide to stay abroad.

Source: The Economist

Ukraine faces serious demographic challenges, particularly due to lower life expectancy compared to leading European countries. According to the data cited, Ukrainian women live on average 8–10 years less, and men up to 14 years less, than in those countries.

Earlier, a demographer stated that Ukraine’s population had shrunk to 28.5 million people.

Ukraine’s demographic crisis: a catastrophic population decline amid the war.