Russia Will Not Be Able to Deliver the Promised Amount of Diesel Fuel to the U.S. — The New York Times

Analysts believe that Russia will not be able to supply the promised amount of diesel fuel that Russian dictator Vova Putin promised to U.S. President Donald Trump. The problem is that strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces have reduced oil refining volumes, and there isn’t even enough oil to meet demand in Russia’s domestic market. 

“Classic Putin with empty promises. To me, this seems like classic Putin—empty promises aimed at further stoking hostility within the transatlantic alliance,” says Edward Fisherman, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in the U.S.

Even if Russia fulfills its promise and exports as much as Trump requested, this volume would be insignificant relative to global demand, noted another expert, Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners (an American energy think tank), Kevin Book.

According to him, the agreement with Trump will most likely involve the delivery of about 72,000 barrels of diesel fuel in October, 124,000 in November, and between 240,000 and 720,000 in the following months, provided Russia can fulfill its commitment. In the first half of 2026, before the export ban, Russia exported about 800,000 barrels per day; after the ban, exports ranged from 150,000 to 200,000 barrels per day.

“This is a relatively small increase. It may affect the price, but it’s nothing compared to making up for the lost barrels,” Buk said.

Analysts believe that with this deal, Putin has once again diverted the U.S. president’s attention away from efforts to end the war.

“Any use of leverage that does not serve to bring about an end to the war weakens the overall influence of the U.S.,” said Samuel Sharap, a Russia expert at the RAND Corporation.

This is reported in an article in The New York Times.

As a reminder, Donald Trump thanked Putin for the diesel deal.

Democratic senators called Trump’s diesel deal with Putin a betrayal.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on October 9 that he had reached an agreement with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to supply millions of metric tons of Russian diesel fuel to the American and global markets.