Concorde Capital forecasts a recession in Ukraine in 2026
The investment firm Concorde Capital expects Ukraine’s real GDP to contract by 1% by the end of 2026. The economy may also enter a recession next year. Among the reasons are Russian attacks, which are causing damage to Ukrainian businesses and disrupting the operations of the industrial and agricultural sectors.
Ihor Mazepa, founder and CEO of Concorde Capital, spoke about the deterioration of Ukraine’s economic outlook. He announced the forecast on October 27 during the Forbes Ukraine “Private Investment” conference in Kyiv. According to the company’s estimates, Ukraine’s real GDP will decline by 1% in 2026. Mazepa also does not expect economic growth in 2027. He said that GDP will most likely contract again next year. “Ukraine will end 2026 with a 1% decline in GDP, and there is no reason to believe that GDP will grow next year. Most likely, it will fall again,” Mazepa said.
The head of Concorde Capital attributes this forecast to losses suffered by Ukrainian businesses due to intensified Russian attacks on rear regions. The strikes are damaging factories, warehouses, and other facilities on which companies depend. When production stops or operates intermittently, businesses lose revenue, and the economy as a whole produces fewer goods and services.
Industry could contract by 3%, and inflation could reach 12%
In addition to the decline in GDP, Concorde Capital forecasts a 3% contraction in industrial production in Ukraine by the end of 2026. According to the company’s estimates, inflation could reach about 12%. The economic situation is being affected by damage to large enterprises in the metallurgical and agricultural sectors, as well as the destruction of warehouses. Such damage can lead to the loss of finished products, supply disruptions, and additional costs to resume operations.
Problems in the industrial sector also affect related industries. If a company cuts back on production or temporarily halts operations, this can impact carriers, raw material suppliers, contractors, and employees. Damage to logistics infrastructure complicates the delivery of goods and their export. At the same time, an inflation forecast of 12% means that prices may continue to rise. Inflation reflects a general rise in the cost of goods and services, so both households and businesses feel its impact. However, these figures are Concorde Capital’s forecast, not the final results for the year.
Other analysts are also revising their forecasts downward
Concorde Capital is not the only company to have revised its expectations for the Ukrainian economy. Several think tanks and investment groups also suggest that GDP could contract in 2026 due to intensified Russian attacks. However, their estimates vary.
In particular, in its October macroeconomic review, the KSE Institute revised its previous forecast of 1.9% real GDP growth to an expected decline of 0.3% in 2026. The forecast for 2027 has also been revised downward: instead of 2.1% growth, analysts now expect a 0.6% contraction. Among the main reasons, they cite intensified attacks on critical infrastructure and production facilities.
Dragon Capital forecasts a 0.5% decline in GDP in 2026 and a further 1% decline in 2027. Previous expectations were more optimistic: the company had anticipated economic growth of 1.5% this year and 0.5% next year. The revision of the forecast was influenced, in particular, by the shutdown of part of industrial production, operational issues at Black Sea ports, and damage to energy infrastructure.
The ICU Investment Group has also revised its estimates. While in June it had forecast GDP growth of 0.8% for 2026, it now expects a contraction of 0.6%. The forecast for 2027 calls for a 1.9% decline.
The World Bank and the IMF expect growth
At the same time, not all international organizations are forecasting a decline in the Ukrainian economy. Some of them still expect GDP growth, albeit at a slower pace than previously projected.
In early October, the World Bank estimated potential growth for the Ukrainian economy in 2026 at 1.2%. In 2025, this figure stood at 1.8%. For 2027, the organization forecasts growth of 1.5%—significantly lower than the previous estimate of 4%.
In its October World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecasts Ukraine’s GDP growth at 1% for 2026. In June, expectations ranged from 1% to 1.6%. The Fund left its forecast for 2027 unchanged at 3.5%.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has also revised its estimates downward. While the EBRD previously expected Ukraine’s real GDP to grow by 2.2% in 2026, it now forecasts 1.5%. For 2027, expectations were lowered from 4% to 2.5%. Among the reasons cited are Russian strikes on ports and ships in the Black Sea, which create additional obstacles to exports.
What Do These Forecasts Mean?
Estimates from various companies and international organizations differ significantly. Some analysts expect the economy to contract as early as 2026, while others forecast slow growth. However, a common factor in many assessments remains the impact of Russian attacks on production, infrastructure, and exports. It is important to note that forecasts may change depending on the security situation, the operation of enterprises, the availability of logistics routes, and the level of external support. The final results will become clear after the end of the year and the release of statistical data.
Currently, Concorde Capital’s assessment is one of the most pessimistic: the company expects GDP to fall by 1% in 2026 and anticipates a further contraction in 2027. Other analysts are also revising their forecasts downward, but there is still no consensus on the future trajectory of the Ukrainian economy. This was reported by the company’s founder and CEO, Ihor Mazepa, during the Forbes Ukraine “Private Investments” conference in Kyiv on Tuesday.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved in principle Bill No. 15262, which provides for maintaining the increased corporate income tax rate for banks at 50% in 2027. The bill passed its first reading.
Prior to this, the Rada extended the deadlines for issuing residence permits for foreigners serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Verkhovna Rada also began reviewing the 2027 budget, which includes 5,236 amendments.
Earlier, the Verkhovna Rada’s Budget Committee supported a pay raise for military personnel.
