The opposition is ahead of Netanyahu's bloc in the Israeli elections
In Israel, opposition parties are leading Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp, according to preliminary exit poll data. At the same time, his Likud party may win the most seats among individual political parties. However, neither of the two main camps has yet secured the majority needed to form a government.
After voting concluded in Israel, the first projections regarding the distribution of seats in the Knesset—the country’s parliament—were released. According to Channel 12, the opposition bloc could win 52 seats, while the parties supporting Netanyahu could win 50. Channel 13 gives the opposition 53 seats, while predicting the same 50 for the incumbent prime minister’s bloc. Thus, both exit polls show an advantage for Netanyahu’s opponents, but it is not yet sufficient to form a government on their own.
At the same time, the results for individual parties differ from the overall breakdown between the two camps. According to forecasts by both TV channels, “Likud”—Netanyahu’s party—could become the largest single political force. Channel 12 predicts it will win 24 seats in parliament, while Channel 13 predicts 25. The centrist Yashar party, led by Gadi Eizenkot, who heads the opposition camp, could win 22 or 23 seats, respectively.
Why the results aren’t enough for a victory yet
The Knesset consists of 120 members. To secure a parliamentary majority and form a government, a political bloc needs at least 61 seats. According to preliminary estimates, neither Netanyahu’s supporters nor his opponents are crossing this threshold. Therefore, even if the final results confirm the opposition’s lead, it will still have to negotiate with other parties.
Smaller political parties that win seats in parliament could play a key role. Their support could determine which side is able to secure the necessary number of votes to form a coalition. At the same time, exit polls are only preliminary estimates, not official election results. They are based on surveys of voters conducted after the election, so the final distribution of seats may differ. According to Reuters, vote counting and negotiations between parties could take several days or even weeks.
Opposition leaders have declared Netanyahu’s defeat
Opposition representatives have already cited the preliminary results as evidence of a loss of support for the incumbent prime minister. Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the “Yashar” party, stated that the election results indicate a lack of trust in Netanyahu and his government. One of the key issues of the election was the government’s responsibility for the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the events that followed.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid was even more blunt. He stated that Netanyahu’s camp had suffered a serious defeat. For his part, Yair Golan, head of the left-liberal “Democrats” party, said that Israeli voters had “dismissed Netanyahu’s government.” These statements reflect the assessments of opposition politicians, but do not in themselves determine the election results. Final conclusions must await the completion of the vote count and the official allocation of seats.
Who Will Form Israel’s Next Government
Once the results are finalized, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will hold consultations with representatives of the political parties. He will then task the candidate whom he believes has the best chance of securing a parliamentary majority with forming the government.
The candidate may be given up to 42 days to form a government. If he fails to reach an agreement with other parties, another politician may be given a chance. If a government cannot be formed, the country may face the need for new elections. Until then, the current government may continue to perform its duties on an interim basis.
Thus, preliminary results indicate an advantage for the opposition camp but do not provide a clear answer as to who will lead the next government. Further developments will depend on the official results and whether the political parties can agree on a coalition. This is reported by Reuters and DW.
In Israel on Tuesday, October 27, voters turned out in large numbers at polling stations during the first national election since the attack on October 7, 2023. Voter turnout set a record, according to The Hindu.
Long lines formed at polling stations across Israel on October 27 during the election for the 26th Knesset. In particular, long wait times were reported in small communities near the border with the Gaza Strip. A person identified only by the initial A. said that they left the polling station after waiting 45 minutes and decided to return in the evening.
In Israel, the Association for Civil Rights in Israel (ACRI) reported possible obstacles to voting at polling stations in Arab communities during the October 27 election. The organization appealed to the chair of the Central Election Commission, Judge Noam Solberg, urging him to immediately dispatch inspectors to the polling stations.
In Israel, the Detainees’ Support Network—which is linked to the protest movement—issued an appeal to citizens arriving from abroad to participate in the elections. They were advised to save the numbers of a special emergency hotline, print them out, and place them in their passports in case the police confiscate their phones.
