Bread prices in Ukraine could rise by another 10% by the end of the year

By the end of 2026, the price of bread in Ukraine may rise—by an additional 10%, according to forecasts. Even a drop in the price of grain and flour does not guarantee lower prices for finished products, as producers and processors are facing rising costs for fuel, electricity, logistics, and labor.

The final price of bread is influenced not only by grain and flour prices but also by costs associated with production and delivery to stores.

As explained by Denys Marchuk, deputy chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR), even a drop in the price of wheat on the domestic market and its processing into flour does not necessarily lead to lower bread prices in stores.

Savings on raw materials can be offset by costs for fuel and electricity. Russian strikes on energy infrastructure remain an additional factor. Due to damage to energy facilities, producers and processors are forced to use alternative power sources, which increases the cost of production.

According to Denys Marchuk, grain accounts for no more than 12% of the cost of bread. If we include processed raw materials—flour—this figure does not exceed 30%.

At the same time, the remaining costs are attributable to other components of production:

• Logistics—delivery of raw materials and finished products.
• Energy—electricity and alternative energy sources.
• Labor costs—wages for company employees.

It is these costs that largely determine the final price of bread on store shelves.

Thus, even if grain and flour become cheaper, bread prices in Ukraine may continue to rise. If costs for energy, fuel, logistics, and labor continue to rise, this could affect the price of finished products for consumers.

Wholesale prices for onions in Ukraine rose by an average of 12% over the past week. Farmers are currently selling the vegetable for 10–16 UAH per kilogram.

Meanwhile, greenhouse cucumbers have become significantly more expensive in Ukraine.

Prices for greenhouse tomatoes continue to rise in Ukraine. Currently, sellers are offering the vegetables for 50–75 UAH per kilogram, which is on average 14% more expensive than at the end of last week.

It should be noted that prices for certain products in Ukraine have risen over the past three days.

As a reminder, prices for berries are rising in Ukraine due to a European shortage.